Is there a link between the teams facing off in the Super Bowl and how the market fares the following day? Data shows us more clearly than superstition or conjecture.
Football fans in the United States have a big weekend ahead. The New England Patriots face the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday, Feb. 4 in the 52nd annual Super Bowl (LII) competition. This is just the second time these two teams have met at a Super Bowl game, the first being Feb. 6, 2005, when the Patriots clinched a 24 – 21 victory over the Eagles.
The Super Bowl is more than just an event for sports enthusiasts. Many others get in on the excitement too, from novelties vendors to Uber drivers and hospitality industry players, the Super Bowl is an occasion for the many.
And, this year, we can add one more group to that list as well: Financial investors.
Analysis over the last five-plus decades shows the S&P 500 fell the Monday after the Super Bowl 63 percent of the time. That means it increased on only 37 percent of those Mondays. And, when the Patriots last played the Eagles in 2005, it dropped by 0.11 percent on the following Monday. Table 1 shows an overview of the 21st century Super Bowl face-offs and the market changes on the following Monday.
Table 1: 21st Century Super Bowl Games & Stock Market Percent Changes
Source: Thomson Reuters Deals Intelligence. View a larger image.
A deeper dive into this data shows that 67 percent of the time (six out of nine times) the New England Patriots were in the Super Bowl, the market dropped the following Monday. And, both times (100 percent) the Philadelphia Eagles played in a Super Bowl (one of which was against the Patriots), it dropped. So, seven out of 10 times these two teams have been in the Super Bowl, the stock market has declined on the Monday after the event.
Positive v. negative impact
The stock market fares quite favorably after certain teams compete in a Super Bowl. For instance, seven of the eight times the Dallas Cowboys competed in the Super Bowl (88 percent of the time), the stock market increased on the following Monday. Similarly, six of the eight times the Pittsburgh Steelers were in it (75 percent of the time), the market was in the green. And two of the three times the Seattle Seahawks hit the big stage (67 percent of the time), the market responded favorably on the following Monday.
Conversely, the Denver Broncos tend to have a dampening effect on the market,as it’s gone down the Monday after each of the eight times they were in the Super Bowl. Similarly it dropped four of the five times the Green Bay Packers, New York Giants and Washington Redskins competed in this premiere football event (80 percent of the time).
“It’s amazing the data resources we have at our fingertips,” said Matthew Toole, director, Thomson Reuters Deals Intelligence. “In today’s day and age, it’s possible to apply information in novel ways to generate new, thought-provoking angles for looking at a situation.”
A crystal ball? Not quite
This data is not a crystal ball and doesn’t predict the future, but it does give the likelihood of an outcome based on past performances. What this means exactly for this coming Monday is still to be seen. We’ll have to wait until the end of the day February 5 to know for certain. It’s not likely the football teams competing will give much credence to this, but those in the market may find it a fascinating.