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Get To Know Us – An interview with Daniel Redo from Lanworth Agriculture

08 Sep 2016

daniel-redo

GET TO KNOW US –  Daniel Redo, Head of Agriculture Research, Supply Chain and Commodities, Lanworth Team

We recently spoke with Daniel Redo, Head of Agriculture, and asked him to share some information about himself and his team. Enjoy the interview!

Tell us a little bit about Lanworth agriculture/weather, its value proposition and how it fits into the Thomson Reuters organization. 

The Agriculture team sits within the Supply Chain & Commodities Research with a mission of delivering unbiased forecasts of production for the world’s major grains and oilseeds. Our customers see the progress of crop production, understand the projections, and can act decisively. Insight, Forecast History, Satellite Imagery and Weather Indices on Eikon cover corn, soybean, wheat, rapeseed and palm oil. Our reach is global: all the world, all the regions, all the issues. Additionally, we are constantly expanding our coverage and offerings on Eikon to ensure you miss nothing.

Daniel, why do you think it’s important for traders and analysts in the Commodities space to tap into Lanworth agriculture content? 

Whether you are trading physicals or financials, you need to see the drivers of pricing; the earlier you know how these will change, the better positioned you’ll be. Lanworth forecasts give you robust supply estimates ahead of the curve. We back up our analysis with explanations so you can test the quality of our conclusions. Our Insight on Eikon presents a view of what production will be and an expectation of when it will be reflected in official statistics. Lanworth on Eikon lets you focus on the drivers and understand the impact. You can do this instantly through high-level conclusions, supporting analysis and key data. Tools are also available on Eikon allowing you can see what we see: satellite imagery and weather indices that are easy to interpret.

How is Lanworth Agriculture different from the competition?

The Lanworth team has built its reputation on taking customers beyond farmer-based surveys and anecdote into a landscape of scientific, measurable effective forecasting. Our forecasts are anchored in the fundamentals that drive changes in production—weather, satellite imagery, and fieldwork—which is based on independent observation and intelligence. The record shows that this multi-faceted approach leads to greater accuracy than traditional sources of crop intelligence. No other organization takes such measures in order to provide an independent and timely assessment of future production. There is no reliance on traditional mechanisms, such as farmers’ surveys.

We also understand the importance of communicating uncertainty. Our methods quantify the limits of our knowledge through rigorous statistical analysis. We provide a most probable estimate and a range around that estimate that captures alternative production scenarios. As time progresses, scenarios get ruled in or out and this confidence interval tightens. In this way, Lanworth converges on a robust and reliable estimate ahead of other forecasters. Often, our production estimates are at odds with the market consensus or official figures. So we go back and check those estimates and the intelligence that supports them. We try every means we can to break them. In practice, that means that if our figures match the expectations you have from elsewhere, you have a sound basis for feeling confident. And if our figures don’t match those other sources, you have an equally sound basis for acting, before the market corrects itself.

Thank you, Daniel!

Follow Daniel on Twitter and LinkedIn. You can also follow the Lanworth team on Twitter. 

Be sure to join the Supply Chain & Commodites LinkedIn group here – Thomson Reuters Supply Chain & Commodities. 

#CommodsConvergence

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